How you can improve your horse racing betting
by: DylanFox |
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Professional gamblers will never tell you this - so I will. They never gamble. You will never catch one red-handed putting twenty quid on Forest Green Rovers to win at Oxford United on the off-chance it may happen. They play percentages and they play because they're sure of winning with good odds.
Horse racing has been sullied by a number of scandals lately - most notorious was that of Keiron Fallon, whose attempt to throw a race was a disgrace of the highest order. But we see a lot of that with the lower-class races, where winnings can be as low as a few hundred pounds. Personally, I never bet on these races, where absolutely anything can happen, from maidens to sellers.
I always bet on two races first and foremost - and I go replete with information and stats about the horses I have selected. So how do I come to a shortlist?
First of all, there's the Grand National at Aintree, run every April. I open an account with a bookie, get a free bet in the bargain and make sure that I've got the best possible odds for the horse I want. This often means getting in early, so ante-post betting is the norm. Usually in February, the bookies will publish odds on the Grand National after the initial list of about 100 runners is produced. Here's what I do to find my bet:
1. I eliminate all horses younger than 8 and older than 11. 2. I eliminate all horses carrying more than 11 stone. 3. I eliminate all horses that have not run at Aintree. 4. I favour all horses that have run at Aintree and won at this distance. 5. I favour horses that are 9 or 10 years old.
I'm playing percentages here, which means that you will not always win. Hedgehunter played riot with this by coming in at over 11 stone, but he was rightly the favourite that year. This list will give you five or six very good horses that prove that the Grand National is not the lottery people say it is. Even in the year where only five or six horses finished, mine came in second!
I love the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp because it's the final big race of summer, and I almost always find a winner! It's consistent, it's fair and it's exciting - here's how I find a winner:
1. Look for a horse trained in France 2. Look for a horse that has won the Prix Niel in September 3. Look for a 3-year-old with five or six runs under its belt 4. Look for a horse that knows (and knows how to win at) Longchamp 5. Don't pick a Derby winner
Now the Arc is a peculiar race for many reasons. Many trainers take a horse there after a long season and think that they can win simply on form - but this really is a late race and many horses are best at the start or in the middle of the season. Hence the "lightly run" factor. Derby winners come early in the season and very rarely adapt to Longchamp.
Longchamp is also very peculiar - so it takes a good horse to tackle that long, long straight - after such a huge curve. If you use this method, you will end up with one or two horses at most - and perhaps one or two outsiders that you like the look of over the age of three. As i said, this is a game of percentages, so always look at the history of the race as well as the history of each horse.
So by studying the past and projecting it into the future, you know that you can play percentages and start winning some serious money. Not every time - but most times. And then you'll be gambling like a pro!
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About the Author
Before you open an account with a bookie and get yourself a free bet, make sure you read up on each bookie and the potential catches to their promotions from the Free Bet Bookmaker.
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